Baccarat Probabilities

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What makes Baccarat so appealing? Many individuals have designated this their favorite game for 3 reasons:

  1. The house has a very low edge.
  2. There is not a lot of strategy to consider when playing.
  3. And it is essentially a very simple game to learn and play.

Common questions asked by those who are learning the game include: Why is Baccarat surrounded by an aura of prestige and elegance? What’s with all the velvet? And, who exactly plays Baccarat? Well, those are good questions and puzzling to many experts. One of the most alluring aspects of Baccarat is the glitz and glamour that often accompanies it. Typically, the Baccarat tables in Vegas and AC casinos are roped-off affairs, with velvet partitions and beautiful women adorning the crowd and attending to the high-rolling participants. Solemn and serious, tuxedo-clad dealers add to the striking image of overt wealth and prestige. Because of all this, one might expect Baccarat to be complicated and accessible only to the wealthy, but this is not the case. Baccarat is one of the easiest games to master due to the small number of strategic decisions and possible maneuvers.

This section will help you understand what your chances of winning in Baccarat really are, and also how to make the correct decisions enabling you to increase your own likelihood of winning.

The following are a few common questions people ask when thinking about Baccarat probabilities:

Where’s the Best Bet?

The house edge for a banker bet outcome is only 1.17%, while the edge for a player bet outcome is slightly more at 1.35%. Thus, you can see the attractiveness of the game. It should be remembered that most casinos will charge a 5% commission on winning banker bets. This simply illustrates for you which outcome is more probable, and therefore the best bet.

Should I Wager on a Tie?

Universally not recommended by any gaming experts, the Tie bet outcome is seldom a winner. The payout odds are significantly higher (8:1, opposed to 2:1) which makes it irresistible for those who are looking for that quick buck, or who operate more on whims and hunches than mathematical deduction and logic. If you do choose to bet on the Tie, don’t expect to win very often. If you choose to bet on the Tie and win, congratulations!

Number of decks?

An important thing to consider when choosing which game to play, the number of decks being used is often unwisely overlooked. Below, you will find the advantage of playing games with fewer numbers of decks being used. The number of decks used is displayed on the far left column, followed by the bet outcome in the middle, and finally the probability of these outcomes on the far right:

Bet Outcome Probability
1 DECK Bank 45.96%
Player 44.68%
Tie 9.36%
4 DECKS Bank 45.88%
Player 44.63%
Tie 9.49%
6 DECKS Bank 45.87%
Player 44.63%
Tie 9.51%
8 DECKS Bank 45.86%
Player 44.62%
Tie 9.52%

As you can see, the lowest house edge occurs when betting on the Bank with only 1 deck being used. The margin is small but, as you know, Baccarat is often a high-stakes game, so every decimal point of an advantage you can gain will inevitably lead to more positive results and more money in your pocket!

Look at our Baccarat Strategy page for other useful ways to increase your chances of winning.

Learn The Most Powerful Baccarat Strategy!

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A reliable Baccarat strategy is generally considered a falsehood among gamblers. Although you may often hear people asserting that they have devised the ‘perfect’ strategy, Baccarat is essentially a game of chance and there is relatively little the player can do strategically to improve the odds.

However, that does not mean that there is no point thinking about the game. There are several central things to remember when playing baccarat that will help you to make correct decisions and play more intelligently and, therefore, increase your chances of success.

Consider the following questions and answers if you want to become a better player:

Is pattern spotting an effective strategy or superstitious hogwash?

Use the scoreboard! You will undoubtedly see other players make use of the pencil and chart provided by most casinos, on which they keep track of previous hands and try to determine if there is a pattern. Usually, if they believe there is a pattern, they will change their betting in order to take advantage of a streak. This is erroneous and illogical. The casino encourages this because they know it has no bearing on the game. In Baccarat, as in most games, no hand can have influence on a following hand. Although you will see countless other players marking their score card, you should pay no heed to this. After all, would the casinos really provide everyone with something that would help the customers win more money?! No way!!

Which type of game favors the player?

Some tables use different numbers of decks. You can maximize returns by playing Baccarat with single decks which offer the best mathematical return (about 1% house edge) for the banker bet, representing the best return possible for any bets in any form of Baccarat.

The Tie bet has great payout odds. When is the best time to wager on it?

Never! Avoid it like the plague. No matter what you hear, the Tie is NOT a great option. Although the payout is considerably more than the player and banker bets, and therefore more enticing, it is not a good idea. The house edge on tie bets is at least 5%. Smart gamblers do not bet on the tie.

Considering the odds, should you always bet on the banker?

Technically yes – practically, perhaps not. Looking at the numbers, the odds are always better if you bet on the banker. This Baccarat strategy would be unquestionably dull, and so you wouldn’t want to be playing for very long. Remember, the house does have an edge, even though it is relatively small for Baccarat. This means that in the long run the house will win, undeniably. To minimize the house edge, it is advisable to bet on the banker. However, most people play Baccarat for its fun and whimsical nature.

Important note: Practice first before wagering! Almost all online casinos offer the game in both the practice mode and the betting mode. It is always a good idea to practice your chosen game in free play mode as it gives you the chance to check out their software before you start playing for money.

Online Baccarat Rules

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Baccarat has long been the card game of choice for high rollers, but even players with lower bankrolls have flocked to the game as well. The rules are easy and can be mastered in a few minutes. For more information on Baccarat, visit our rules and strategy sections pertaining to this game.

The object of baccarat, put simply, is to correctly predict whether the banker’s hand will win, the player’s hand will win, or if the game will end in a tie.

Bets are placed before the cards are dealt. Hands are automatically formed for the banker and the player. The value of a hand is determined by adding the values of its individual cards. Tens and face cards count as zero, while all other cards count as their numerical value. After adding up the total, only the last digit is used. So, baccarat hands all have values from 0 – 9. The hand with the higher value wins! If the hands have the same value, the game results, obviously, in a tie. Initially, both the banker and the player are dealt two cards. If the two initial cards total 8 or 9, the hand is called a “natural.” Otherwise, standard Baccarat “third card rules” determine if a hand should receive an extra card.

Winning bets on the player’s hand are paid at 1:1 odds. A commission is charged on winnings as a result of a bet on the banker, making the net odds on banker bets: (1 minus the percentage commission) to 1. A winning wager on a tie bet is paid at 8:1 odds. If the game does result in a tie, bets on the banker or player are returned.