Sports betting strategy, winning picks, and money management are what we do at http://crystallball.org/. Hello I’m JV Miller in Las Vegas. My family has been betting on sports professionally for two generations.
In this article I discuss the five most underrated subjective factors in handicapping North American football. We recently did a video about the five most overrated factors. You can click right here to check that out. I’ll also put the link down below. There are eighty-one factors used to determine the outcome of football games and other sports. 44 factors are subjective and 37 are statistical.
It’s been my experience that you must utilize a handicapping approach based both on statistics and subjectivity. Statistics are the raw numbers, of course: the scores, the rushing yards, the pointspreads, the vigorish, the math, the odds and probabilities, etc. When we talk about subjective factors we’re referring to the emotional state of mind of the athletes, the coaches and others…their motivation, their inspiration, their drive, their confidence… you’re dealing with an unlimited number of human emotions and conditions. To get this right you’ve got to know about the actual sports; the game; and how it’s played; the rules; the history; all the entities involved; the various leagues and teams; the owners; the universities; the front offices; the general managers and head coaches; the players unions; the sports agents; and of course the athletes. First of all are they professionals or college students? and you must know their background; their age; their physiology; their health; their injuries; their salaries; their contracts; endorsement deals; their families; divorces; criminal histories; etc.
These are all factors that sports bettors often overlook. Sometimes these subjective factors are discounted; sometimes sports bettors just don’t assign them enough weight. Number one on our list of the five most underrated subjective factors in handicapping North American football: position match ups. Sports bettors tend to place all the emphasis on the overall team instead of knowing the relative strengths and weaknesses of individual players in any given matchup. It’s imperative to assess every player’s assignment and his ability to execute in his position against those on the opponent’s team to whom he’ll be assigned to restrict or neutralize.
No sports bettor can know too much about each individual player and his ability. Number two on our list: sandwich game factor. Most handicappers and sports bettors do not place enough importance on this when a team has a game against what’s considered to be an insignificant opponent or not much of a challenge… and it follows and precedes a highly significant, noteworthy game.
That’s sandwich game factor. These scenarios are notorious for tripping up good teams. The team – supposedly the good team – will be overly confident, unprepared and unfocused on the task at hand and often will either lose or not cover. Number three on our list of the underrated factors in handicapping North American football: level of emotion. At game time a team’s emotional level can be ultra valuable or detrimental. A team too keyed up is prone to making mistakes in the very beginning which causes penalties; an emotional level too low can delay a team’s momentum and they can fall behind and have a hard time catching up.
Number 4: home dogs. Never lose sight of the fact that any team – college or pro – knows whether or not they’re favored in any game. This doesn’t mean they’re involved in sports betting just whether or not Las Vegas has them favored to win or not. When a team is at home and they’re the underdog it’s an extra shot of inspiration from that team because nobody wants to accept the role of the inferior squad in their hometown in front of their family and friends and fellow students. And number 5 on our list of the most underrated subjective factors in handicapping North American football: turnovers.
This is both a statistical and a subjective factor. How many is a statistic; why the turnovers is subjective. Turnovers are a window into the soul of a team.
The more turnovers the more problems internally with that team. Teams with no turnovers, for instance, are well disciplined, confident and prepared . When there are turnovers, it’s like a little kid who acts out in school. It usually means there’s something wrong at home or on the school bus or somewhere else. It’s a signal that something is going wrong somewhere and you have to look into it to get to the bottom of it or all bets are off.
Okay, so when all the work is done and you’ve considered and weighed properly all the factors you have a decision to make. Are you going to lay good hard-earned money on this decision or not? This is where we come in.
Serious-minded sports bettors or sports betting investors should work with a professional handicapper. Most investors in other things have advisors. Stock investors have stockbrokers, real estate investors have real estate brokers, so more and more sports betting investors are turning to professional handicappers like myself and our service , ProfessionalGambler.com, the first and oldest online sports handicapping service founded in 19997 by my father, J. R. Miller. Sports — uh – sports bettors like you don’t come to me because they have extra money to spend. They come to me to grow their bankroll.
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